The great hit rating debate.

Actually, it was a pretty one-sided debate. For quite a while I thought that a dual-wielding shaman could get away with very little +hit rating on his gear. Everyone else in the world was telling me that I was crazy. When everyone in the world is saying that you're nuts, it's often a good idea to take a step back and have a close look at your opinions.

I was basing my opinion off of one forum post I read in the excellent Elitist Jerks enhancement theorycrafting thread. Specifically, the section reproduced below:
"Itemization - Hit Rating
Current theory is holding that we may not need anywhere near the hit cap like we previously thought. A good explanation of why can be found here. Effectively, because we can get a large quantity of +Hit from talents (9%), our special attacks (windfury and stormstrike) are already hit capped. All the extra +Hit rating on your gear is going toward improving white damage only, which typically comprises between 45%-50% of your total damage. When you consider the itemization costs of hit rating compared to crit rating and AP which directly impact 90% of a shaman's total damage, you can see why hit rating is given lower precedence."

Well, that's true as far as it goes. Follow up posts make it clear, however, that there is still a basic amount of hit rating that a dual-wielding shaman needs to reach in order to be useful. What the author really meant was that we don't have to stack +hit items to the degree that a rogue or a fury warrior do. I was guilty of over-optimism and a lack of reading comprehension.

So, what's the big deal about hit rating? This stat reduces your chance to miss with melee attacks. Say you're swinging at an equal level enemy. Assuming they don't have a lot of defense skill and that your weapon skill is at it's maximum, you will have a 5% chance to miss. But if you're dual wielding, as raiding enhance shammies usually are, you've got a 24% chance to miss. That only gets worse as your target's level increases. Every 15.8 points of hit rating decreases your chance to miss by 1%. Shamans can get a 6% bonus to hit from the Enhancement tree, and another 3% from the Restoration tree, but it would still take a lot of hit rating to fill the gap.

In reality, that gap never really gets filled. A very good dual-wielding fury warrior of my acquaintance has a hit rating of 220 and gets an additional 3% to hit from talents. All told that's still a 7% chance to miss an even level target, but his damage output is quite excellent. If I were to hit my goal of at least 130 hit rating and take all 9% worth of my available talents I would be hitting as often, if not as hard. Knowing how successful my furious friend is, I think that's a hit/miss ratio that I can feel comfortable with.

The lesson I learned from this episode is that min/maxing just won't work. All the damage potential in the world will mostly go to waste if I'm missing a quarter of my swings. I'm making a conscious effort now to strike a balance in my stats and to avoid falling into that trap again.